Amy Winehouse Andy Dick Angelina Jolie Anna Nicole Smith AOL Apple Architecture Art Ashlee Simpson Ashley Greene Auto Cars Avril Lavigne Ayu Oktasari Bai Ling Bank of America Barack Obama Beauty and Style Beauty-Style Bernanke Beyonce Bing Bobby Brown Brad Pitt Britney Spears Brittany Murphy Brooke Hogan Business Ideas Business News Calum Best Car News Car Photos Car Reviews Car Videos Carmen Electra Carrie Prejean Casey Johnson Celebrity Celebrity Nails Cheryl Cole China Chopper Lane Splitter Chris Rowe Christina Aguilera Christina Hendricks Cindy Crawford Clinton Clip COMEDY Coming Soon Companies Courtney Love Credit Cards Dalene Kurtis Daniel Baldwin Daniel Mica David Beckham David Hasselhoff Deborah Caprioglio DietFitness Drawing & Coloring Earthquake Economy Eirik Solheim Entertainment Eva Mendes Facebook Facebook-Games Farmville Fastion Forex Funny Game Game Info Game News General Motors Gold Golden Globes Haiti Halle Berry Heather Mills Heidi Fleiss Holly Madison Hot Girls Hot News Hot Women How To How To Read A Forex Chart HOW TOs Insurance International Investing Ipad Iphone Isaiah Washington Jamie Lynn Spears Jenna Jameson Jennifer Hawkins Jennifer Hudson Jesse Metcalfe Jessica Sierra Jessica Simpson Jobs Jocelyn Wildenstein Joe Weisenthal Jonathan Rhys Meyers Kat Dennings Kate Moss Kate Winslet Katie Price Katie Rees Katy Perry Keeley Hazell Keith Richards Kelly Brook Kelly Clarkson Kendra Wilkinson Kiefer Sutherland Kim Kardashian Kirsten Duns Kiss Style KT Tunstall Laetitia Casta Lauryn Hill Leah Marville Leona Lewis Leonardo DiCaprio lesbian Lesbian-Questions Lil Kim Lily Allen Lindsay Lohan Liz Pulliam Weston Loan Centre Louis Navellier Lynda Carter Make Money Mariah Carey Marisa Miller Mary Kate Olsen Mayim Bialik Megan Fox Mel Gibson Michael Jackson Michael Vick Michelle Obama Michelle Rodriguez Miley Cyrus Mischa Barton Miss World Mobile and Internet Molly Sims Movie Info Movies Mutual Funds Nadia Fazlini Sharip Nail Art Tutorial Nail Samples Nails Naomi Campbell News Nicolas Cage Nicole Polizzi Nicole Richie O.J. Simpson Oirigami Useful Origami Origami Airplane Origami Animal Origami Animal Easy Origami Animal's Face Origami Box Origami Flowers Origami Useful Osama Bin Laden Owen Wilson Pamela Anderson Paper Airplane Paris Hilton Paula Abdul Paula Sladewski Personal Finance Pete Doherty Pete Wentz Play Game Online Police Porsche Quotes about Life Rachel Zoe Real Estate Rihanna Roseanne Bar Sara Barelles Scandal Sean Young Sexual Health Shakira Shannon Elizabeth Sharon Stone Shocking Sienna Miller Star Stocks Strange Story Stupid Celebries Susan Boyle Taiwan Tamil Tiger Tara Reid Teens Tiger Woods Tila Tequila Today's Big story Tom Cruise Tom Sizemore Top Game Top Video Toyota Trading Trailers Travel Twilight Vanessa Hudgens Victoria Beckham Video Women Women-Family Women-Health Women'sHeath World Trade Center

Stocks Will Crash, But Here's How To Make 50% On Your Money This Year

10:40 AM
Stocks Will Crash, But Here's How To Make 50% On Your Money This Year
We had Gary Shilling on TechTicker this morning. He was as bearish and charming as always.

Last summer, our guest Gary Shilling of A. Gary Shilling & Co. predicted that stocks would fall 30%. That hasn't happened yet, but the extraordinary bull run that made idiots out of many of Wall Street's greatest gurus last year has now finally reversed, and Gary is sticking by his bearish guns.

At Dow 10,000, Gary says, stocks are still priced to reflect a strong economic recovery throughout 2010 and 2011. And that's not going to happen. Consumers still account for more than 70% of the spending in the U.S. economy, and consumers are retrenching. The value of their assets has plummeted, so they're finally saving again. They're unemployed. They're tapped out. Put all that together, and consumer spending will continue to be weak, and the overall economy will only grow 2% a year.

When the market finally realizes that its dream of a v-shaped recovery is too optimistic, stocks will go lower--perhaps much lower. In fact, Gary thinks there's a 40%-50% chance they'll crash right through the bear-market lows set last spring.

So what's an investor to do?

Buy Treasury bonds, Gary says. Contrary to the concerns of they hyper-inflation crowd, the world is awash in excess capacity. We have too much production capacity, too many houses, too much labor. Overcapacity leads to deflation, not inflation. So today's 4.5% long-term Treasury yield will go to 3%, making bondholders 25% in the process (50% if you buy zero-coupon bonds).

And buy the dollar. At the end of last year, everyone agreed that the dollar was going to continue to collapse. That was your cue to get the heck out. It's not that we don't have serious problems with deficits and debt in the U.S., Gary says--it's that our problems are less bad than the problems facing the Euro. Gary thinks the dollar will rise back to parity with the Euro, a major move from the ~$1.35 it takes to buy a Euro today.

And sell commodities. China is overheating, and as it corrects, it will take global commodity demand down with it.

In short, Gary says, do exactly the opposite of what everyone was telling you to do at the end of last year.

Post a Comment

[facebook][blogger]

Author Name

Xin chào mọi người

Contact Form

Name

Email *

Message *

Powered by Blogger.