Amy Winehouse Andy Dick Angelina Jolie Anna Nicole Smith AOL Apple Architecture Art Ashlee Simpson Ashley Greene Auto Cars Avril Lavigne Ayu Oktasari Bai Ling Bank of America Barack Obama Beauty and Style Beauty-Style Bernanke Beyonce Bing Bobby Brown Brad Pitt Britney Spears Brittany Murphy Brooke Hogan Business Ideas Business News Calum Best Car News Car Photos Car Reviews Car Videos Carmen Electra Carrie Prejean Casey Johnson Celebrity Celebrity Nails Cheryl Cole China Chopper Lane Splitter Chris Rowe Christina Aguilera Christina Hendricks Cindy Crawford Clinton Clip COMEDY Coming Soon Comment faire un Avion en papier Companies Courtney Love Credit Cards Dalene Kurtis Daniel Baldwin Daniel Mica David Beckham David Hasselhoff Deborah Caprioglio DietFitness Drawing & Coloring Earthquake Economy Eirik Solheim Entertainment Eva Mendes Facebook Facebook-Games Farmville Fastion Forex Funny Game Game Info Game News General Motors Gold Golden Globes Haiti Halle Berry Heather Mills Heidi Fleiss Holly Madison Hot Girls Hot News Hot Women How To How to Make How To Read A Forex Chart HOW TOs Insurance International Investing Ipad Iphone Isaiah Washington Jamie Lynn Spears Jenna Jameson Jennifer Hawkins Jennifer Hudson Jesse Metcalfe Jessica Sierra Jessica Simpson Jobs Jocelyn Wildenstein Joe Weisenthal Jonathan Rhys Meyers Kat Dennings Kate Moss Kate Winslet Katie Price Katie Rees Katy Perry Keeley Hazell Keith Richards Kelly Brook Kelly Clarkson Kendra Wilkinson Kiefer Sutherland Kim Kardashian Kirsten Duns Kiss Style KT Tunstall Laetitia Casta Lauryn Hill Leah Marville Leona Lewis Leonardo DiCaprio lesbian Lesbian-Questions Lil Kim Lily Allen Lindsay Lohan Liz Pulliam Weston Loan Centre Louis Navellier Lynda Carter Make Money Mariah Carey Marisa Miller Mary Kate Olsen Mayim Bialik Megan Fox Mel Gibson Michael Jackson Michael Vick Michelle Obama Michelle Rodriguez Miley Cyrus Mischa Barton Miss World Mobile and Internet Molly Sims Movie Info Movies Mutual Funds Nadia Fazlini Sharip Nail Art Tutorial Nail Samples Nails Naomi Campbell News Nicolas Cage Nicole Polizzi Nicole Richie O.J. Simpson Oirigami Useful Origami Origami Airplane Origami Animal Origami Animal Easy Origami Animal's Face Origami Boat Origami Box Origami Flowers Origami Useful Osama Bin Laden Owen Wilson Pamela Anderson Paper Airplane Paris Hilton Paula Abdul Paula Sladewski Personal Finance Pete Doherty Pete Wentz Play Game Online Police Porsche Quotes about Life Rachel Zoe Real Estate Rihanna Roseanne Bar Sara Barelles Scandal Sean Young Sexual Health Shakira Shannon Elizabeth Sharon Stone Shocking Sienna Miller Star Stocks Strange Story Stupid Celebries Susan Boyle Taiwan Tamil Tiger Tara Reid Teens Tiger Woods Tila Tequila Today's Big story Tom Cruise Tom Sizemore Top Game Top Video Toyota Trading Trailers Travel Twilight Vanessa Hudgens Victoria Beckham Video Women Women-Family Women-Health Women'sHeath World Trade Center

Morgan Stanley: Asian Economic Momentum Has Stalled, Markets Soon To Follow

4:21 AM
Morgan Stanley: Asian Economic Momentum Has Stalled, Markets Soon To Follow

Why are Asian markets suddenly looking a bit wobbly?

Morgan Stanley macro strategy analyst Rashique Rahman discusses some of what's going on.

The bottom line: the big economic we comeback is slowing down:

-------

Upside macro fundamentals momentum looks to be stalling for EM, following a sharp
improvement since early 2009. We gauge this with our Macro-Dynamic Trend
Indicator (MDTI). It measures the rate of change in key macro variables*.
Market momentum tends to follow trends in the MDTI, with a lag –suggesting that
there is still some upside resistance to asset prices in the coming weeks. We show
the MDTI against EM sovereign credit spread levels (Exhibit 1). Notwithstanding a
near-term market rebound from the recent pullback –which we expect –this is
consistent with our view of a correction in early 2Q.

chart

First, on current trends MDTI would be falling into 2Q. Second, this would occur at a
time of what we believe may be reduced fund inflows in 2Q, providing less underlying
technical support to the market. Investor exposure to the market has already
increased. There is scope to add more long-side risk, but the technical position is
nowhere near as sound as it was at the end of last year.

Third, we anticipate a sharp rise in long-end US rates, which would crowd out other investment.
We combine the MDTI with our EM exposure indicator (EMEI) to gauge the
combination of fundamental and technical momentum on market direction. This EM
gravity index looks to have peaked and has declined, heading towards a downside
bias for the market (Exhibit 2). Arguably, the recent sell-off has taken lots of steam
out of any future correction, but these fundamental and technical dynamics could still
prove to be a drag on market performance in the coming weeks.

What is contributing to the peaking out in the MDTI? From a regional perspective,
non-Japan Asia (AXJ) is showing a decisive decline in fundamentals momentum, led
by higher inflation and a deterioration in trade balances. The other two regions’
macro momentum remain steady to higher, with particular strengthseen in Latin
America for Colombia and Mexico and for CEEMEA, Poland and Russia.

Post a Comment

[facebook][blogger]

Author Name

Xin chào mọi người

Contact Form

Name

Email *

Message *

Powered by Blogger.